‘Historically Accurate’ Model Predicts Trump Will Win in 2020 if the Economy Remains Strong
President Donald Trump will win re-election easily if the U.S. economy continues to be strong, according to historically accurate models from Moodys’ Analytics. Three different economic models, used by Moodys’ to predict elections, show Trump will breeze to victory in 2020.
Moodys’ predicts that Trump will get at least 289 electoral college votes and could win as many as 351 against a Democrat’s 187. Trump won 304 electoral college votes in 2016 against Hillary Clinton’s 227. Such an increase would be almost unprecedented.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys’ said.
Of the three models, Moodys’ ‘pocket-book’ model is the regarded as the most accurate. It shows a major victory for Trump is on the horizon if the economic numbers hold.
“Our ‘pocket-book’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the Moodys’ report said.
“This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
The report points out that turnout will be key if the Democrats want to win the White House in 2020. It’s also worth noting that Moodys’ models have been correct in predicting presidential races since 1980, with the exception of 2016, when they projected Clinton as the winner.
There are also serious indications that an economic downturn is ahead, exacerbated by the President’s own trade policies.