Biden Leads in Four Key Swing States, New York Times Poll Finds

The final New York Times/Sienna College poll before Election Day shows Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump in Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all states Trump won four years ago.

In Florida, Biden’s slight lead of 47%-44% is within the margin of error. He holds a six percentage point edge in both Arizona and Pennsylvania, and has an 11 point lead in Wisconsin.

According to FiveThirtyEight‘s poll averages, Biden increased his lead in each of these states except in Pennsylvania, where it held at 4.9%.

How the NYT/Siena polls affected our averages:

AZ: They have Biden +6. Our average goes from +3.2 to +3.4
FL: They have Biden +3. Our average goes from +1.7 to +1.8.
PA: They have Biden +6. Our average stays at +4.9.
WI: They have Biden +11. Our average goes from +8.2 to +8.7.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2020

“Trump’s apparent weakness in many of the country’s largest electoral prizes leaves him with a narrow path to the 270 Electoral College votes required to claim victory, short of a major upset or a systemic error in opinion polling surpassing even the missteps preceding the 2016 election,” the Times noted.

William Vaillancourt

William Vaillancourt is a writer and editor from New Hampshire whose work has appeared in The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, The Progressive, Slate and Areo Magazine, among other places. He holds a BA in Political Science and History from Boston University.