Donald Trump’s campaign manager Kellyanne Conway told a British documentary that Trump is going to win because many voters are hiding the fact that they will vote for him. She dismissed polls showing Trump well behind Clinton because voters were unwilling to tell pollsters their real preference.
“Donald Trump performs consistently better in online polling where a human being is not talking to another human being about what he or she may do in the elections,” Conway said. “It’s become socially desirable, especially if you’re a college educated person in the US, to say that you’re against Donald Trump.” Conway failed to mention any of the polls she thinks prove her point.
“People who are supporting Donald Trump, who have not voted Republican in the past, who have not voted in quite a while, are so tired of arguing with family and friends and colleagues about their support of Donald Trump that they just decided not to discuss it,” she said.
Conway’s claims have some basis in fact. Voters sometimes lie about their voting intentions in polls if they feel embarrassed by their actual preference. But Conway’s dismissal of polling is too all encompassing to be believed. Every poll currently shows Trump losing to Clinton, including a series of polls in crucial swing states. Professional polling analysis also takes into account the possibility of deceptive answers.
The idea of secret Trump supporters is consistent with Trump’s ‘silent majority’ narrative. Trump supporters actually believe he will sweep the electoral college and win 48 or 49 states, a virtual impossibility based on current projections. Trump supporters are loud and aggressive. The idea that there are millions of silent Trump supporters is pure speculation.